The latest word is that the manager’s amendment and CBO scores will be released Saturday with the first cloture vote to take up the amendment on Monday. With a total of three cloture votes to end filibusters needed before a final vote on a Senate bill, Reid has said the vote may occur Christmas Eve, Christmas Day, or on December 28th. Keep in mind that although 60 votes are required to close filibusters, it would take only 51 votes to pass final legislation. It is possible that either Senator Ben Nelson (D-NE) or Senator Snowe (R-ME) could agree to be the 60th vote to end cloture, but still vote against the final legislation.
After the Senate adopts its bill, differences with the House-passed bill must be ironed out or, as we usually think about the two chambers passing different versions of a bill, going through a conference committee to develop one single bill to be passed by both chambers. However, Congressional Democratic leaders are talking about a ping-pong-ping approach which would bypass the usual conference committee process. In this scenario, the Senate would send its bill to the House and request them to pass the Senate. House members would likely make some marginal changes--but would still have to garner 218 votes to pass the bill. If the House makes changes, then the bill would have to go back to the Senate for another vote. This ping-pong-ping approach would likely occur in late December or early January--in time for President Obama to claim victory on healthcare legislation before his State of the Union Address. All of this depends on some timely votes and negotiations with the Democratic party and between the two chambers.
